As the product of a long-standing collaboration between the OECD and FAO, the Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 offers a comprehensive assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets in the midst of persistent economic uncertainties and elevated energy prices. The report is enriched with inputs from member countries and international commodity organizations, highlighting significant trends and challenges in the sector.
One major concern addressed is the increase in agricultural input prices, particularly fertilisers, which has implications for global food security. The report’s scenario analysis shows that a 1% increase in fertiliser prices can lead to a 0.2% rise in agricultural commodity prices. The impact is more pronounced for crops directly reliant on fertilisers compared to livestock products, with the exception of poultry and pigmeat production.
In relation to food security, the report specially mentions the contribution of plant breeding in the development of new plant varieties, increasing productivity with less land use:
“(…) Global crop production growth will mainly be driven by increased productivity rather than increased land use. Therefore, investments in raising yields and improved farm management are essential. Assuming continued progress in plant breeding and a transition to more intensive production systems, yield improvements are projected to account for 79% of global crop production growth, cropland expansion for 15%, and higher cropping intensity for 6% over the Outlook period. Yields for crops such as oil palm and rapeseed have not increased, however, in major producing countries over the last ten years; more investments are needed to improve the productivity of these crops (…)”.
The Outlook also introduces enhanced estimates for food consumption by integrating methods to calculate food loss and waste in order to support the SDG 12.3 target to halve per capita food waste by 2030.
Global food consumption in calories is projected to grow by 1.3% annually over the next decade, driven by slower population and income growth. Livestock production in low- and middle-income countries is expected to expand rapidly, boosting demand for feed. Conversely, high-income countries and China are projected to see slower growth in livestock production.
Investment in technology, infrastructure, and training remains crucial for achieving the projected 1.1% annual growth in global agricultural production. Most of this growth will occur in middle- and low-income countries, driven by productivity gains rather than land expansion. The Outlook emphasizes the need for continued improvements in crop yields and farm management practices.
Trade in agricultural commodities is forecasted to grow in line with production, despite disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Both the trends and projections described in the report, underscores the importance of a transparent and rules-based multilateral trading system to support global food security.
